MLS Cup is Between Two Diametrically Opposed Philosophies

Let this serve as a tactical preview of the MLS Cup between two MLS originals, but I have to begin by stating my biases: I am a lifelong New York Red Bulls fan, I’ve ridden every peak and valley this team has offered since its days as the MetroStars.

To win an MLS Cup in the year where our best player did his best ‘dad going out for cigarettes’ routine until the end of the season… that would feel even more Metro.

How did they get here?

Let’s start on the west coast where LA Galaxy has sailed through MLS Playoffs after being tied on points for first place in the Western Conference. All season the Galaxy came roaring back after being the spotlight has faded with LAFC’s rising MLS dominance.

The strength of this squad truly lies in the front five players. The most important one - Riqui Puig has been sidelined for the final with an ACL tear that he injured during the club’s semi-final win against Seattle. Puig played 30 minutes on the injured knee and even provided the game-winning assist in the dying minutes. We’ll talk a little bit more about his missing impact a bit later on, but just know that the undisputed best player between these two squads won’t be playing in the final. Even as a Red Bull fan that is akin to a championship boxing bout with your opponent having to tie an arm behind their back.

Finishing 2nd in the Western Conference after a banner year meant getting to easily dismiss Colorado in the first round on a 9-1 aggregate score, and not being challenged much more in a 6-2 drubbing of Minnesota in the Conference semi-finals. Easily their toughest test was the Seattle Sounders who stood toe to toe with LA Galaxy except for one mistake deep in the 86’ minute which lead to a Dejan Joveljic goal (assisted by the aforementioned Riqui Puig).

Not only are their styles and tactical philosophies at odds with each other, but the way the Red Bulls reached the finals is a far more bumpy road than the LA Galaxy. About halfway through the season NYRB were on track to finish easily in the top 3 of the Eastern Conference. It was a surprise to many, but just as hope was building their star player Emil Forsberg got injured and the wheels fell off.

Since June 1, through 20 matches in regular season and Leagues Cup, the Red Bulls won three of them - and two of those three wins were against Toronto FC.

That is easily the worst form of any club in the league and was a historically poor run for a club that made MLS Playoffs. For context, on June 2 they NYRB has 29 points through 16 games only trailing Inter Miami by 6 points. By the end of they season after 18 more matches, they had only collected another 18 points and finished in 7th place in the East.

Eastern Conference standings on June 2, 2024

Of course the club was going to be put out of its misery when they drew reigning MLS Champions Columbus Crew in the home and away fixture in the first round of MLS Playoffs. Somehow, some way, NYRB snuck past Columbus beating them in Columbus and holding on for a draw at home.

Next up was a derby day away at NYCFC. At Citi Field on the back of a reinvigorated Dante Venzier, NYRB pulled off a snatch and grab 0-2 win after NYCFC generated 2.8 xG to NYRB’s 0.88.

But this luck just could not continue… could it? NYRB had to go again away to Orlando City who finished the MLS regular season as the most in-form club to qualify for playoffs. The Red Bull way would continue as Sandro Schwarz’s men held Orlando to only one big chance the entire game, while homegrown leftback John Tolkin swung in a perfect free kick for an Andres Reyes goal early in the 2nd half.

Here we find ourselves at MLS Cup. The Western champion find themselves unbeaten at home all season, relatively unchallenged but not unscathed - while in the East we have an underdog that has never won an MLS Cup coming in with nothing to lose.

Tactical philosophies

Let’s stick on New York for a moment because it’s quite interesting how the playoffs have completely flipped not only their results but their formation they play in. During the season Red Bulls regularly employed a four-defender system and only played Columbus with a five at-the-back system as a direct counter to Columbus. The system worked so well with Tolkin and Sean Nealis as wingbacks that they kept the setup against NYCFC… and then Orlando. There’s no reason to expect they won’t play the favored 5-2-1-2 against LA Galaxy.

The formation is one thing, but you can expect a match resembling the physical dominance that you have come to expect from NYRB. The high press is not exactly gone as much as it is reserved. Red Bull will pick their moments and allow LA to keep much of the possession. Without Riqui Puig, Galaxy will have their work cut out to beat a compressed New York defense.

The Galaxy for their part are on the other extreme. The Supporter Shield and MLS Cup winning coach Greg Vanney has created a free flowing and high scoring outfit. I think even while replacing Puig in the midfield with either Marco Delgado or Gaston Brugman they will likely keep that possession-based attack.

The 2024 LA Galaxy are very much of the ‘a best defense is a good offense’ ilk.

Riqui Puig

In the 63rd minute of the semi-final against Seattle Sounders Puig tore his ACL, and incredibly he kept playing for the remainder of the match. He’ll miss an unknown amount of time, but will not be part of the LA Galaxy squad that marches out this Saturday. LA Galaxy fans will be crushed, but it is incredibly disappointing from an observer’s point of view because of how much of a dynamic vibration he brings everytime he touches the ball.

Riqui Puig played in four matches during MLS Playoffs and produced four goals and three assists. During the regular season LA Galaxy scored the third most goals in the league and easily outpaced every other club in terms of progressive carries and progressive passes. Riqui Puig was the reason.

Matchups to watch

This match will come down to the players creating width for both squads. For the Galaxy Joseph Paintsil and Brazilian Gabriel Pec will line up opposite of Dylan Nealis and John Tolkin respectively. Will the expansive play and width of LA Galaxy win out or will the compact wingbacks of NYRB utilize the space left to counter?

Gabriel Pec’s incredible run of form

I said during last year’s preview between LAFC and Columbus Crew that this would be one of the best matchups we’ve seen in a long time, and I think we will continue that trend, because this final will be fascinating to watch between two diametrically opposed squads, histories, and styles.